Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
